SpaceX’s IPO is already spilling into crypto markets, where one whale has opened a $22.3 million leveraged long on SPCX, a synthetic pre-IPO perpetual contract tied to Elon Musk’s aerospace company.
Key takeaways:
- The whale is already sitting on more than $1.15 million in unrealized profit.
- Synthetic SPCX is trading near $175, roughly 30% above SpaceX’s $135 IPO price.
Whale’s paper profits are over $1.15 million already
The whale’s position, visible on data resource Hypurrscan, shows the trader holding a 2x isolated long on “xyz:SPCX” worth about $22.29 million.
Address 0x9cc1… open perpetual positions as of Friday. Source: Hypurrscan
The whale entered near $168, while SPCX recently traded around $175, leaving the position with roughly $1.15 million in unrealized profit. It had spent just over $500 in funding fees.
Synthetic SPCX trades at 30% premium ahead of IPO
SpaceX has priced its IPO at $135 per share to raise $75 billion by selling about 555.6 million shares, bringing the company’s valuation to around $1.77 trillion. The stock is expected to trade under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq.
At around $175, the synthetic SPCX market is trading about 30% above the IPO price. In other words, crypto traders are already pricing in a strong first-day rally before regular equity markets fully absorb the listing.
SPCX/USDC hourly chart. Source: Hyperliquid
Other secondary markets are pointing in the same direction. For instance, IG International derivatives implied a SpaceX valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the valuation set by the IPO price.
Polymarket traders put 56% odds on SpaceX closing its first trading day in the $2 trillion–2.5 trillion market cap range.
SpaceX IPO closing market cap. Source: Polymarket
History of IPOs warns of a strong SPCX correction after debut
The 30% SPCX premium points to strong opening demand, but IPO history argues against chasing the first trade.
US IPOs from 2020 to 2025 averaged roughly 30% first-day gains, according to Jay Ritter’s IPO database. However, that upside mostly benefits investors who receive shares at the offer price.
US IPO average first-day returns. Source: Jay Ritter/IPO Statistics
Buyers who enter after the opening print often face a weaker setup, particularly after the initial euphoria fades.
Ritter’s long-run IPO data show that companies with positive first-day returns averaged a 29.6% debut gain from 2001 to 2024, but then underperformed the market by 8.5 percentage points over the next three years.
Related: SpaceX IPO nears 4 times oversubscribed, squeezing crypto and tech
High-valuation IPOs have performed even worse. Among IPOs with trailing sales above $100 million and price-to-sales ratios above 40, buyers at the first close saw an average three-year return of -44.8%.
Long-run IPO returns by price-to-sales ratio. Source: Jay Ritter
SpaceX is going public at nearly 94 times the trailing sales, making it one of the most oversubscribed IPOs ever.
Recent listings showed the same risk. Nasdaq-listed Cerebras (CBRS), a semiconductor company, priced its IPO at $185, opened at $350 and closed its first day near $311, but later fell to around $197, a roughly 50% drop from its first-day peak.
CBRS daily chart. Source: TradingView
Rivian (RIVN) and Uber (UBER) also struggled after strong early attention, with lockup expirations adding pressure as insiders and early investors became free to sell.
SpaceX is overvalued
Several prominent voices have warned that SPCX could fall after the debut.
Morningstar’s Nicholas Owens valued the company at just $780 billion, roughly 55% below the IPO price, calling it significantly overvalued and advising investors to wait for the stock to settle.
NYU professor Aswath Damodaran put the fair value around $1.25–1.3 trillion and described the $135 offer price as “rich.”
In a Wednesday post, analyst The Fundamental Investor said the stock is very likely to drop below the IPO price, potentially leaving early retail buyers underwater for years.
Source: X
The whale’s liquidation level sits near $93.27. The position could incur an estimated loss of about $9.4 million if SPCX falls to that level.
