Ether (ETH) struggled to hold above $2,000 on Tuesday, as analysts noted that its 31% year-to-date decline in 2026 mirrors price fractals seen in previous market cycles.
Key takeaways:
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ETH’s recent dip to $1,736 may mark only the first of many lows in a larger consolidation phase.
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Onchain cost-basis data clusters from $1,300 to $2,000, reinforcing this range as a potential demand zone.
ETH fractal hints at a longer base-building phase
A long-term fractal comparison between the 2021-2022 and 2024-2025 cycles suggests that Ether’s sharp sell-off mirrors a pattern in which an initial bottom is formed before the price revisits lower levels due to further market weakness.
On the weekly chart, ETH’s drop toward the $1,730 region resembles its “first low,” rather than a definitive market floor.
In 2021, ETH spent 12 months consolidating around the first low ($1,730) and a lower support band ($885), allowing leverage to reset while spot demand rebuilt.
Applying this framework, ETH may continue ranging from about $1,300 to $2,000, with downside tests toward the $1,500–$1,600 zone possible before a sustained base is formed.
Onchain cost basis data cites $1,300–$2,000 as a demand zone
Ether’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) data underlines the chances of an extended consolidation. Large supply clusters remain above current prices, with $2,822 accounting for 5.86% of the ETH supply and $3,119 holding 6.15%, forming heavy overhead resistance.
Below current spot prices, notable clusters appear at $1,881 (1.58 million ETH) and $1,237, suggesting potential demand zones if the price continues to retrace.
Structurally, $1,237 stands out as a potential cycle floor, followed by intermediate support near $1,584 and stronger acceptance around $1,881, where the realized supply concentration increases.
Derivatives data aligns with this view. The liquidation heat map shows cumulative long liquidations at risk of $4 billion to $6 billion, ranging to $1,455 from $1,700, and these are levels that may still be targeted by sellers.
However, more than $12 billion in short liquidity is stacked up to $3,000, implying that once downside liquidity is absorbed, the directional bias may shift higher in the coming months.
Related: Analysts debate whether Ether has capitulated or has further to fall
What is giving Ether structural support?
Data from CryptoQuant shows Ether withdrawals from exchanges have surged to their highest level since October 2025, with net outflows exceeding 220,000 ETH. Binance recorded daily net outflows of about 158,000 ETH on Thursday, the largest since August 2025.
These flows coincided with ETH trading from $1,800 to $2,000, suggesting accumulation or risk-off repositioning at these levels.
MNCapital founder Michaël van de Poppe highlighted a similar dynamic, noting that price often lags network and narrative growth.
Stablecoin transaction volume on Ethereum has risen about 200% over the past 18 months, even as the ETH price remains about 30% lower, a divergence that may lead to a parabolic repricing for the altcoin.
Related: Ethereum Foundation teams up with SEAL to combat wallet drainers
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