This week will be action-packed, with multiple US economic events scheduled that are poised to influence traders’ and investors’ portfolios.
It comes amid an ongoing US government shutdown, with the data blackout approaching 30 days.
US Economic Data Points to Influence Portfolios This Week
Traders can cushion their portfolios by monitoring the following US economic events this week.
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1. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
This is perhaps the most important US economic event this week. It is due on Wednesday, a record five days after the September CPI release.
On October 29, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision, clarifying whether the Fed will maintain rates or hint at future cuts.
This decision is critical, as it has the potential to affect liquidity, risk appetite, and trading behavior across all markets.
According to data on the CME FedWatch Tool, interest betters see a 96.7% chance of another 25-bps rate cut to 4.00% at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
2. Powell’s Press Conference
While the FOMC’s interest rate decision will be critical, more focus could be attached to the dots plot and Fed chair Jerome Powell’s tone after the release. Powell will hold a press conference half an hour after the FOMC data release.
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“[His remarks] will shape 2025 cut expectations (2-3 more priced in), potentially driving mid-week volatility,” said analysts at AlphaBTC.
Therefore, markets will parse Powell’s speech for clues about the Fed’s policy outlook going forward, with dovish or hawkish sentiment expected to influence investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, Powell’s recent remarks at a business conference are worth noting. He said that the central bank’s effort to reduce its bond holdings, known as quantitative tightening (QT), is approaching its end.
Powell also indicated that the Fed is nearing the point where it will stop the balance sheet runoff when bank reserves are “somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions.”
Despite anticipation, however, the ongoing government shutdown continues to weigh heavily on expectations.
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3. Initial Jobless Claims
Beyond interest rate-related woes, traders and investors should also monitor the initial jobless claims data, due on Thursday. Interest comes as the US labor market is now a crucial macro for Bitcoin.
This US economic event determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week. It would provide insight into the strength of the US labor market.
According to the Kobeissi Letter, initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11. This was the highest since the 2019 government shutdown.
While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data remains available. The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1.
Additionally, continuing claims rose +9% from the prior week, to 9,430, the highest in 3.5 years.
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4. PCE
Finally, another US economic event to watch is the September PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure). In August, US PCE inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.7%, faster than in July but aligned with expectations.
Analysts anticipate the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October amid sticky inflation, with PCE still above target.
“Why do I think the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October? Inflation is still sticky with PCE 2.7, core 2.9, and median about 3.3, all above target,” one user said in a post.
Traditional risk assets and digital currencies respond swiftly to US economic events, especially monetary policy changes.
When the Fed raises rates, it usually dampens speculative assets. However, the prospect of rate cuts can boost sentiment as borrowing costs fall and liquidity grows.
Crypto traders frequently watch these factors, adjusting positions based on the latest guidance and inflation numbers.
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $115,553, up by almost 4% in the last 24 hours.
